Just before we go and split the hairs of the special operation versus a war to understand the nuances of each let us first take a short visit to Pajule. A great famine had hit the land and each day it grew from bad to worst. The situation grew so unbearable that coupled with the dwindling food stocks two friends decided that the best way to preserve themselves was to throw their respective mothers to drown in the nearby river.
One of the friends went and promptly executed the mission and the other bound by a love, stronger than hunger hide his mother in a cave. After the famine passed the one who had thrown his mother into the river started missing his mother and could not find someone to care for him with such delicious meals as his mother used to prepare. He noticed however, that as he grew thinner his friend was growing fatter. It took him painstaking investigation to discover his friend has misled him and had actually hidden his own mother in a cave. Alas it was too late to reverse.
I then called too mind the wise counsel of King Solomon who when the women each claimed the child decided that since they were both mothers of the child then he would cut the child into half for each to partake. The story ends with the mother saying she forfeited her claim on the child and would rather allow the other woman to keep it alive than the guarantee its fatality by the blade of King Solomon.
The contribution of Russia and Ukraine to the seemingly unrelated elements of oil (edible and non-energy) and the bread and cake value chain cannot be underestimated. As a consequence of the war we expect to have a disruption in quantities and prices of bread in, not only Pajule, but Sudan, Egypt and Kenya. Kenya also has had challenges in their balance of trade when they lost markets for their flowers. All these different consequences have not been put under sufficient consideration as we kowtow the much touted fight for democracy.
Let us monitor carefully the impact of less wheat production hence less bread and cake production. Immediately, the demand of eggs will plummet and with it a drop in price to a level below the costs of production. We shall therefore see farmers discouraged and disillusioned with the egg projects. And these are just top of the ice – berg examples.
Of course this begs the question how our leaders can mobilize the Ugandans to utilize our vast arable land in order to pull our weight in realization of our agriculture potential. As Winston Churchill once said, the land is, from end to end, a veritable paradise; any thing grows there.